21.01.2025 - The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has examined the development of diseases related to smoking and alcohol consumption under different scenarios. The findings indicate that reducing smoking and alcohol use can significantly improve the health of Finns.
“Policy decisions play a crucial role in the development of public health. The more we invest in reducing smoking and alcohol consumption, the more public health improves, and lives are saved. Concrete measures, such as restricting the availability of tobacco products and alcoholic beverages and implementing regular tax increases, can significantly reduce disease rates,” says Otto Ruokolainen, Senior Specialist at THL.
Smoking and alcohol consumption are key risk factors for many common diseases, including cancers, cardiovascular diseases, and liver diseases.
Achieving the Smoke-Free Finland target could prevent over 6,000 new COPD cases and nearly 3,000 new coronary artery disease cases
THL's study evaluated how the prevalence of smoking affects disease rates under four different scenarios for the period 2025–2034.
Smoking rates in Finland have decreased significantly in recent decades. However, the decline has slowed, suggesting that positive progress may not continue without additional measures.
The Finnish Tobacco Act aims for a smoke-free and nicotine-free Finland. If this goal is achieved, less than five percent of the adult population will use tobacco and nicotine products daily by 2030. Currently, this figure is 16 percent, with 11 percent of adults smoking daily.
“An effective way to reduce smoking and related diseases is to limit the availability of tobacco. This can be achieved through regular tax increases, raising the sales age limit to 20 years, and systematically reducing the number of sales outlets,” explains Ruokolainen.
If smoking continues to decline at the current rate, THL estimates that approximately 7,000 people will develop lung cancer, 35,000 will develop chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 175,000 will develop coronary artery disease in Finland between 2025 and 2034. The study projects the following scenarios for smoking-related disease development:
Achieving the Smoke-Free Finland target by 2030 could prevent over 1,000 new lung cancer cases, over 6,000 COPD cases, and nearly 3,000 coronary artery disease cases.
If the target is reached by 2034, approximately 750 lung cancer cases, 4,000 COPD cases, and nearly 2,000 coronary artery disease cases could be avoided.
If smoking prevalence stabilizes at the current level, the study predicts about 150 additional lung cancer cases, over 1,000 additional COPD cases, and over 600 additional coronary artery disease cases.
Continued reduction in alcohol consumption could prevent thousands of new alcohol-related illnesses
Another THL study presents three possible developments for alcohol consumption and related health problems for the period 2024–2033.
Alcohol consumption in Finland has decreased over the past 15 years. However, significant policy changes, such as increasing alcohol availability, could slow, halt, or reverse this positive trend.
THL projects that if alcohol consumption continues to decline at the current rate, there will be just under 56,000 new alcohol-related illnesses over the next decade. Relative to this baseline, the study predicts the following outcomes:
If alcohol consumption stabilizes at 2024 levels, nearly 5,000 additional alcohol-related illnesses will occur.
If alcohol consumption increases, nearly 11,000 additional alcohol-related illnesses will occur.
“From a health perspective, it is highly beneficial to continue reducing alcohol consumption. Policymakers should avoid reforms that promote alcohol sales,” says Pia Mäkelä, Research Professor at THL.
The findings support previous research showing that influencing lifestyle factors also affects disease rates. This has significant implications for public health and the national economy.
New service to forecast health trends by welfare area
This year, THL will launch the "Terveyden tulevaisuuskuva" (Health Future Scenarios) online service, allowing welfare areas to explore scenarios related to smoking and alcohol use within their regions. The service will also include scenarios for hypertension and obesity, as well as other health forecasts. THL will provide more details about the service and its release early this year.
The studies were conducted as part of Finland's Sustainable Growth Programme (RRP), funded by the EU’s recovery instrument. The programme supports ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable growth.
Source: THL